The conflict in Ukraine has evolved into one of the most prominent geopolitical issues of the 21st century. The military aggressive tendencies that started in 2014 after Crimea was annexed by Russia sky rocketed in 2022 when the Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered for a full-scale war against Ukraine. The war has resulted in thousands of deaths, millions of refugees, and the disruption of markets. The U.S. together with its NATO allies has substantially aided Ukraine but a critical question is beginning to surface concerning for how long will they be able to sustain such support. In the United States, as Donald Trump is again in the political limelight, so the question comes: Can Trump cut a deal with Putin concerning Ukraine?
The Stakes for Ukraine, Russia, and the United States
compromise between Zelenskyy and Putin that would serve the purpose of addressing those concerns? The answer is rather ambiguous. There are no doubts that all the three leaders positioned themselves differently optimistic about their respective roles in resolving the ongoing conflict, but theirs was an unrealized optimism.
This was all made even more sensible since two of them are leaders of nuclear powers. Dealing with issues that are of great strategic interests to the US, the Region of Ukraine for instance, it does present all of them with challenges. As far as Ukraine is concerned – the stakes are as high as they could be. The very existence and unity of Ukraine are at stake due to sky-high territorial demands from Moscow including control of Crimea, the Donbas as well as southern and eastern Ukraine.
Out of all the individuals involved in the struggle, Putin has the most active and deepest aspects of motivation to bring Ukraine into the fold. It concerns not only expansion within Eastern Europe, but the very defence of the borders of the Russian territory, where NATO cannot spread, and reclaiming the lost power of the empire. Filters these demands such that – any demilitarization of Ukraine, turning Russia away from the country and installed a government of their Favor – are ultimatum. From this, we can conclude that such restrictions would from now onwards be obligatory in any future engagement with Russia regarding peace.
The other person occupying the White House position is also driven by political motives of a different nature. Therefore – Ukraine only becomes a subject of interest so long as the conflict is contained within global confines. For example, the case of Ukraine has not been very appealing while serving as president. While most of Trump’s engagement in external actions to date has been informed by the value of transactions in advancing ‘America First’ policies, there remains an inclination to consider ‘prestige’ politics in his dealings with Ukraine for the purposes of enhancing his image. Of course, this leads us to a rather cardinal question: would it be possible for Trump to act as a mediator between Zelenskyy and Putin if he wins the fateful political race once more?
Trump’s Disinterest in Ukraine: A Calculation of Strategic Interests
The US has granted Ukraine a multitude of military and other assistance during the full-scale invasion that began in February 2022, which has exceeded $175 billion. Whereas, it is in the form of arms, money, humanitarian aid, and intelligence. Nevertheless, this assistance has prompted a rising discussion within the United States on the appropriateness of sustained engagement in the fight. As for Trump, he expressed doubts on the willingness of the US to stick with Ukraine both while in office and at the outset of his campaign for reflection. In his view, the problem is mostly about the interests of Americans and he questions the need for the US to invest a lot in the war that is not even their concern at all in terms of the safety of the people in America.
How Trump shows no concern for Ukraine, however, is not a development that has just emerged. Throughout his presidency, he rendered international relations of little importance and disregarded prevailing world principles. The “America First” doctrine he pursued would at times imply the priority of the United States, and its agenda even over countries like Ukraine which are its allies. In Trump’s views, the situation in Ukraine represents a risk, but of a different kind, as he expects to profit from the resolution of the unwanted conflict. If Trump solved the problem of the existing war, he would become the man who managed to reduce the operational scope of the overt conflict motivating his re-election.
Zelenskyy’s Efforts to Influence Trump
Finding himself under Russian threat, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy understood that he needed to win over a key supporter in order to tackle the problem at hand, which unsurprisingly is the American president, Donald Trump. Zelensky’s strategy was to promote the idea of Ukraine to the West, not just as a wall that bears the brunt of Russian expansion, but as a responsible regional power with regards to European security. He also tried addressing why supporting Ukraine would have positive implications in the long-run; the victory of democracy in Ukraine could inspire other countries in the neighbourhood.
Notwithstanding Zelenskyy’s attempts to reach out to trump, the latter seems impervious to any change in the basic trajectory of his politics. The war in Ukraine was not of interest to Trump, rather how did it come to be, and what is the issue with Ukrainians fighting back, if any? What he has focused on is the desire to keep America out of other people’s issues and that includes both resources and even more so resolution engaged especially where the people’s interests are not very clear cut.
Putin’s Goals: The Terms for Peace
Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine are categorically contradictory to the desires of Ukraine. Right from the beginning of the invasion in 2022, the goals of Putin were remarkable and quite unequivocal; he referred to them as the demilitarization of Ukraine, its neutralization (that is, barring Ukraine from the NATO or the European union) and the denazification of its authority, a term aimed at justifying the removal of President Zelenskyy and replacing him with a Russian friendly state. These are not mere issues of power projection; they stem from Putin’s need to reclaim this region back to the Russian empire.
It does not take any major deductions from the reality for anyone to understand where the main issues for Putin are:
- Neutrality of Ukraine: It is clear from the past activities of Putin that he is not in the slightest bit supportive of NATO’s activities towards the east. He has, therefore, requested guarantees from Ukraine that it would not become a member of NATO which in turn changes the security dynamics in Eastern Europe.
- Territorial adjustments: Putin will most likely lean toward needing the formal and legal appreciation of territories annexed by Russia namely Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and other nearby areas. He might insist that Ukraine will have to accept the loss of Donbas and perhaps part of the southern region in a bid to annex more about the Black Sea region.
- Easing of Sanctions: Armed with economic prowess and military expansion, Russia has been able to cope with several Western sanctions. Nevertheless, such steps are still considerably devastating. In any peace negotiations, Putin is most likely going to request for lifting of some of the restrictions and such may be enough goodwill for Trump to talk to ache Ving Moscow.
Trump’s Approach: Transactional Diplomacy and Risk
Throughout his career, Trump has built up his reputation as a dealmaker, or rather a negotiator. He believes in the concept of transactional diplomacy where he would not support any agreement if the United States is not the one benefiting from it. This invites a rather intriguing possibility. It is possible that he would seek an agreement with Putin in case the agreement serves his larger agenda which includes less American boots on the ground and more lip service to power.
Nonetheless, Trump would encounter some difficulties in relating with Putin. For one, there is the danger of giving in to Putin by accepting terms that compromise Ukraine’s territorial integrity, or risk bringing in a lasting crisis in the region. Trump is expected to be able to strike an agreement with and for the Russian president, providing such a deal serves US interests, for instance the lifting of sanctions against Russia or cutting back of NATO forces in Europe; however, he must guard against being seen as too weak or naïve in the eyes of the Russian leader.
Furthermore, any proposals for integration with Putin would face internal and external criticism. Doesn’t it fall into the category of ‘saying it all’? The detention is devoid of its purpose, for the sake of egoism one must sign the deal, but in such circumstances, the only agreements that remain are those reminiscent of a coward’s compromise. Anything short of that would risk not be able to claim any victory at all. The danger is that it may be viewed as a yielding to the Russians which would undermine Trump’s standing as the kind of leader who does not back down before his adversaries.
The Politics of a Trump-Putin Deal
In the event that Trump succeeds in negotiating any form of peace agreement, it is likely that it will have to allow both Washington and Moscow an opportunity to claim victory while saving face. For Putin, this may be entailed by a Ukrainian pledge to abandon plans for NATO membership, allowances for, and sanctions against, the annexed territories of Ukraine and Russia, and the lifting of economic restrictions. For Trump, a diplomatic victory could also include any resolution that results in either Russian troops leaving ethnically Ukrainian land or leads to a decrease in the fighting. The only problem here is that it would require some compromises from Putin which, in the case of the Russian president, may be difficult to achieve without jeopardizing his vision of the future.
From a political perspective, considerable ‘pushback’ especially from his local adversaries and even the international society would be in store for Trump’s plans. Any Russian appeasement deal will be – from Ukraine and its allies, especially European ones – sure to generate – deep anger and appropriate responses. Pressing domestic priorities aside, he would also have to contend with the need to project a firm front to Putin and his entourage particularly against countries like China and Iran who would be following the progress of such negotiations closely.
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Conclusion: The Impossibility of a “Win-Win” Scenario?
There are opportunities for Trump to come to an agreement with Putin concerning Ukraine; however, this task shall not be easy. Admittedly, Trump’s proclivity to put an end to the American participation in international wars may motivate him to seek for a compromise. However, the stipulations that Putin will most probably insist on, run contrary to the interests of Ukraine. No deal would succeed without both sides acceding to certain terms and conditions, but the posers that remain are whether such a deal would be politically feasible to Trump and Ukraine as well as the West as a whole.
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Ultimately, it may not be so much Trump’s own skills as a diplomat that will help him edit a peace treaty for Ukraine, but the readiness of at least these two presidents to agree not to the best outcome possible. Still, bearing in mind the existing circumstances and the large differences, a durable and comprehensive peace that all parties can agree to seems unattainable – particularly if that peace calls for compromise whereby Ukraine loses a significant part of its sovereignty and territories.